Nouriel Roubini

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Lore & Background

Roubini was born on March 29, 1958, in Istanbul, Turkey, to Iranian Orthodox Jewish parents. When he was one year old, his family lived briefly in Tehran, Iran. When he was three years old, the family moved to Tel Aviv, Israel. From 1963 when he was five years old to 1983, he lived in Italy, primarily in Milan, where he attended the local Jewish school. He later attended the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel where he completed a one-year program of undergraduate studies, in 1976–1977. He subsequently attended Bocconi University in Italy, earning a B.A. (1982) summa cum laude in economics, and in 2009 was named Bocconian of the Year. He received a PhD in international economics in 1988 from Harvard University, where his adviser was Jeffrey Sachs. For much of the 1990s, Roubini taught at Yale and then in New York, while also working for stints at the International Monetary Fund (briefly as a summer intern and visiting scholar), and World Bank (briefly as a consultant). In 1998–99, he worked for one year in the Clinton administration as a senior economist in the Council of Economic Advisers. He worked from July to October 1999 at the U.S. Treasury Department as a senior adviser to Timothy Geithner (who was then the undersecretary for international affairs), and from October 1999 to June 2000 was director of its Office of Policy Development and Review. Roubini returned to the IMF for July through August 2001 as a visiting scholar. He co-wrote Bailouts or Bail-ins?, a book on saving bankrupt economies, wrote MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them, and started a series of economic firms. In 2021, he became a professor emeritus at the Stern School of Business at New York University.

Reader's Guide

Roubini's predictions earned him the nicknames 'Dr. Doom' and 'permabear' in the media. In 2004 he said that an upcoming recession would lead to the crash of the dollar; when a few years later a recession did come, it actually strengthened the dollar. In 2005 after Hurricane Katrina hit the US, Roubini predicted that an economic disaster was imminent; however, the next two years instead saw an increase in financial activity. Roubini was one of the people, along with among others economists Dean Baker, Fred Harrison, Raghuram Rajan, Stephen Roach, and William White, analyst Meredith Whitney, investment advisers Gary Shilling, Peter Schiff, and Marc Faber, and CFTC chair Brooksley Born who predicted the crash of 2007–08. However, financial journalist Justin Fox observed in the Harvard Business Review in 2010 that 'In fact, Roubini didn't exactly predict the crisis that began in mid-2007... Roubini spent several years predicting a very different sort of crisis — one in which foreign central banks diversifying their holdings out of Treasuries sparked a run on the dollar — only to turn in late 2006 to warning of a U.S. housing bust and a global 'hard landing'.' Others noted that after his initial pronouncement, his calls were consistently wrong, and that if you had listened to him you would have missed the longest bull market run in US market history. Economist Anirvan Banerji told The New York Times: 'Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.' Roubini says that his economic analysis approach is 'holistic,' drawing ideas from a combination of history, literature, and international politics, what he calls the 'entire enchilada.' He also described his approach at an IMF meeting by saying: 'If you ask me where I got that number: Just out of my nose. I will be very honest about that... my model is like a 'smell test'.' Political economist Benjamin Kunkel described his approach as 'almost shamanistic.'

Did You Know?

• Roubini was expected to go into the rug business as a child, following his father's footsteps.
• He earned his BA summa cum laude in economics from Bocconi University and was named Bocconian of the Year in 2009.
• His PhD adviser at Harvard was Jeffrey Sachs.
• Roubini has tweeted that '99% of crypto land is one shitcoin traded for another shitcoin.'
• He was ranked No. 4 on Foreign Policy magazine's list of the 'top 100 global thinkers.'

A Cosmopolitan Forming

Roubini was born on March 29, 1958, in Istanbul, Turkey, to Iranian Orthodox Jewish parents. When he was one year old, his family lived briefly in Tehran, Iran. When he was three years old, the family moved to Tel Aviv, Israel. From 1963 when he was five years old to 1983, he lived in Italy, primarily in Milan, where he attended the local Jewish school. He later attended the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel where he completed a one-year program of undergraduate studies, in 1976–1977. He subsequently attended Bocconi University in Italy, earning a B.A. (1982) summa cum laude in economics, and in 2009 was named Bocconian of the Year. He received a PhD in international economics in 1988 from Harvard University, where his adviser was Jeffrey Sachs. When he was young, Roubini was expected to go into the rug business himself, and follow in his father's footsteps.

Institutional Itinerancy

For much of the 1990s, Roubini taught at Yale and then in New York, while also working for stints at the International Monetary Fund (briefly as a summer intern and visiting scholar), and World Bank (briefly as a consultant). In 1998–99, he worked for one year in the Clinton administration as a senior economist in the Council of Economic Advisers. He worked from July to October 1999 at the U.S. Treasury Department as a senior adviser to Timothy Geithner (who was then the undersecretary for international affairs), and from October 1999 to June 2000 was director of its Office of Policy Development and Review. Roubini returned to the IMF for July through August 2001 as a visiting scholar. He co-wrote Bailouts or Bail-ins?, a book on saving bankrupt economies, wrote MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them, and started a series of economic firms. In 2021, he became a professor emeritus at the Stern School of Business at New York University.

The Prophet and the Skeptics

Roubini's predictions earned him the nicknames 'Dr. Doom' and 'permabear' in the media. In 2006, Roubini warned that a housing bust would trigger a global banking crisis and deep recession within a few years. U.S. subprime collapse spread through the financial system; the 2008 financial crisis ensued. In 2020, he argued the COVID-19-related recession would produce a slump 'deeper than 2008' unless policy action was swift. The World Bank soon confirmed the worst global contraction since World War II (–5.2% GDP in 2020). In 2021, he warned that post‑COVID-19 pandemic supply shocks plus loose policy could bring a stagflationary decade. Inflation in advanced economies shot to multi‑decade highs (U.S. CPI 6.8% y/y by December 2021) and growth slowed, reviving stagflation talk. However, his record is mixed: in January 2009, Roubini predicted that oil prices would stay below $40 for all of 2009. By the end of 2009, however, oil prices were at $80. In March 2009, he predicted the S&P 500 would fall below 600 that year, and possibly plummet to 200. It closed at over 1,115 however, up 24%. In 2009 he also predicted that the US government would take over and nationalize a number of large banks; it did not happen. In 2012, Roubini predicted that Greece would be ejected from the Eurozone, but that did not happen. The Financial Times observed that in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic arrived, he said that policymakers would not mount a large fiscal response. However—they did. Also in 2020, he predicted that a US-Iran war was likely.

The Smell Test

Roubini says that his economic analysis approach is 'holistic.' Rather than focus on mathematical models and formulas, he draws his ideas from a combination of history, literature, and international politics, what he calls the 'entire enchilada.' He also described his approach at an IMF meeting, when discussing how he arrived at the percentage likelihood that there would be a recession, by saying: 'If you ask me where I got that number: Just out of my nose. I will be very honest about that... my model is like a 'smell test'.' Political economist Benjamin Kunkel described his approach as 'almost shamanistic.' Journalist Julia Ioffe observed 'Roubini-ism-- [is] sprawling, non-linear, and hypercaffeinated-- ... his talking points are ... pluralized, rushing out quickly, like a magician's scarves ....'